http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/lacy-hunt-curing-debt-debt-bad-things-will-happen
Watch this.
Thursday, 17 May 2012
Wednesday, 16 May 2012
I got the following from this page : http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/turtlerules.pdf
A complete trading system covers each of the decisions required for successful trading
1. markets - what to buy or sell
2. Position size - how much to buy
3. Entries - when to buy or sell
4.Stops - when to get out of a losing position
5.Exits - when to get out of a winning position
6. Tactics - How to buy or sell
Choose your markets and trade them consistently
When you are trading markets that are dollar denominated - make sure you understand what the dollar is doing - strengthening or weakening.
Volatility - 20 day exponential moving average (ATR)
Compute the True Daily Range
True Range = Maximum ( H-L, H-PDC, PDC-L)
H - Current Day High
L - Current Day Low
PDC - Previous Day's Close
N=(19xPDN+TDR)
----------------
20
PDN - Previous Day's N
TR - Current Day's True Range
Dollar Volatility Adjustment
Dollar Volatility = N x Dollars per Point
22 day - trade up if it exceeds the highest point - sell if it exceeds the lowest point. exit if there isn't a profit after 10 days. or if it is 2 N down
55 day break out - you skip if the prior trade had been a winner on the same scale
The best traders followed the rules. Those who didn't were dropped.
Traders
No trade can incur more than a two percent risk. Place your stops on a percentage risk basis and then move them up accordingly.
Exit - 10 day low for long positions, 10 day high for short positions
Exit 2 - 20 day low for long positions - 20 day high for short positions.
buy strength sell weakness
A complete trading system covers each of the decisions required for successful trading
1. markets - what to buy or sell
2. Position size - how much to buy
3. Entries - when to buy or sell
4.Stops - when to get out of a losing position
5.Exits - when to get out of a winning position
6. Tactics - How to buy or sell
Choose your markets and trade them consistently
When you are trading markets that are dollar denominated - make sure you understand what the dollar is doing - strengthening or weakening.
Volatility - 20 day exponential moving average (ATR)
Compute the True Daily Range
True Range = Maximum ( H-L, H-PDC, PDC-L)
H - Current Day High
L - Current Day Low
PDC - Previous Day's Close
N=(19xPDN+TDR)
----------------
20
PDN - Previous Day's N
TR - Current Day's True Range
Dollar Volatility Adjustment
Dollar Volatility = N x Dollars per Point
22 day - trade up if it exceeds the highest point - sell if it exceeds the lowest point. exit if there isn't a profit after 10 days. or if it is 2 N down
55 day break out - you skip if the prior trade had been a winner on the same scale
The best traders followed the rules. Those who didn't were dropped.
Traders
No trade can incur more than a two percent risk. Place your stops on a percentage risk basis and then move them up accordingly.
Exit - 10 day low for long positions, 10 day high for short positions
Exit 2 - 20 day low for long positions - 20 day high for short positions.
buy strength sell weakness
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Prelude
I really got a few things badly wrong. I have now realised my mistakes and am ready to trade properly but think that the aid of a proper diary of my doing will make it clear for me to see what I am doing.
Now a couple of things. I made a horrible call on gold. Just so immensely supid, I traded a short term trade and turned it into a long term loss. Rule 101 don't be an idiot.
So here are a couple of things that I now know that I need to do a couple of things. The first is to formulate a set of Rules.
These rules can be constantly tweaked and that is ok. Also I have to remember you don't have to be right the whole time, you just have to get out of bad trades well. And that is what I intend to do. I have to learn patience and not sit in front of a fucking computer all day. There is always a temptation to do something out of sheer boredom, especially if you are watching small price movements.
One of the best books I ever read, with one of the most horrible titles ever was how to get rich quick. I know I know it's awful. I found it in my Dad's bookshelf and read it when I was about 16. Anyway to make a long story short there was a guy. He was an actor. He started out and screwed everything up, much like I am doing right now. He was watching everything too closely. He wasn't giving it all enough time to breath to readjust.
As we all know - nothing goes up in a linear fashion. It goes up, hits a high, comes back down, tests a low, goes back up again until it either moves into a higher band or into a lower band. A trend can start, if something goes sideways for too long, it is very possible that it is going to tank if it is at a high, or go up if it is at a low. it reaches its threshhold.
Now it's funny I have been doing this for yearss. I have known all this stuff for a while but it is more own fear and nervousness that stops me from performing well. Well my friends that is about to trade. So if I stop out of what I have now. I am going to make one final attempt with 2000 pounds to prove my theory. I will write every day and see where it gets me. If I get it right great, if not I will have a public account of exactly I got wrong and either way I can learn from it. That is my misssion at the moment.
Now a couple of things. I made a horrible call on gold. Just so immensely supid, I traded a short term trade and turned it into a long term loss. Rule 101 don't be an idiot.
So here are a couple of things that I now know that I need to do a couple of things. The first is to formulate a set of Rules.
These rules can be constantly tweaked and that is ok. Also I have to remember you don't have to be right the whole time, you just have to get out of bad trades well. And that is what I intend to do. I have to learn patience and not sit in front of a fucking computer all day. There is always a temptation to do something out of sheer boredom, especially if you are watching small price movements.
One of the best books I ever read, with one of the most horrible titles ever was how to get rich quick. I know I know it's awful. I found it in my Dad's bookshelf and read it when I was about 16. Anyway to make a long story short there was a guy. He was an actor. He started out and screwed everything up, much like I am doing right now. He was watching everything too closely. He wasn't giving it all enough time to breath to readjust.
As we all know - nothing goes up in a linear fashion. It goes up, hits a high, comes back down, tests a low, goes back up again until it either moves into a higher band or into a lower band. A trend can start, if something goes sideways for too long, it is very possible that it is going to tank if it is at a high, or go up if it is at a low. it reaches its threshhold.
Now it's funny I have been doing this for yearss. I have known all this stuff for a while but it is more own fear and nervousness that stops me from performing well. Well my friends that is about to trade. So if I stop out of what I have now. I am going to make one final attempt with 2000 pounds to prove my theory. I will write every day and see where it gets me. If I get it right great, if not I will have a public account of exactly I got wrong and either way I can learn from it. That is my misssion at the moment.
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